Published on August 12, 2025 2:12 pm
Last Updated on August 12, 2025 2:13 pm
By JOE CAMP
FarmWeekNow.com
Grain futures are coming up on a one-year anniversary of last season’s price lows. No two years will be identical in markets, but there is still reason to believe that price action from last year could show the path forward. For similar outcomes to unfold this year, it may mean that grain futures have further to fall before turning around toward a healthy recovery later.
Corn futures made lows late last August that included the new-crop December contract dipping down to $3.85. November soybean futures bottomed at $9.55. These lows take on greater significance as prices are now possibly returning to the same levels at about the same time as a year ago. Consider the reasons for last year’s price reversal and whether any parallels exist within the present environment.
It would be a repeat of 2024 if the highest crop yield estimates are priced into the market before harvest. Weather shifted adversely in August last year so that soybean yield potential was diminished relative to record predictions previously offered by the USDA. There was also lagged recognition of impacts from flooding and other earlier stresses on the corn yield.
Crop tours that are set to take place this month will play an important role in determining turnaround potential in the grain market. Expectations are for record corn yield ideas to find support from samples showing record population and ear length. Possibly sewing doubt about the top corn yield estimates would be if crop tours reveal widespread pollination problems linked to the localized reporting of tassel wrap issues.
Even if yields do not live up to the current optimism over their potential, the reaction for grain prices may not be bullish like it was last year, since uncertainty about demand could persist. For export markets to be sustained as a consistent source of competition for buying crops, there is much at stake involving the success or failure of ongoing trade negotiations.
Unresolved trade tensions with Mexico, Canada, and China are among the most pressing concerns for agriculture markets. Traders seek confidence that robust corn export demand from Mexico is not just a result of importers frontloading their purchases in light of concern about future trade policy changes. Canada is seen among the countries that have already pulled back on purchases of U.S. agricultural goods in response to tariffs. China has lately been absent from buying U.S. soybeans after having accounted for about half of all U.S. soybean exports for the 2024 crop.
The seasonal interplay between yield prospects and demand potential will ultimately dictate whether prices can carve out a meaningful bottom like they did in 2024. Upcoming USDA reports and crop tour findings will be critical inputs for the market, as will the developments around approaching tariff deadlines and trade talks. While a repeat of last year’s rally is not guaranteed, there is precedence to suggest that patience on crops sales is warranted at these levels.
