{"id":9030,"date":"2025-05-06T10:51:39","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T15:51:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thexradio.com\/news\/?p=9030"},"modified":"2025-05-06T10:51:39","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T15:51:39","slug":"state-revenue-projections-improve-as-economic-uncertainty-grows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thexradio.com\/news\/local-news\/9030-state-revenue-projections-improve-as-economic-uncertainty-grows\/","title":{"rendered":"State Revenue Projections Improve as Economic Uncertainty Grows"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"image_print\"Print<\/span><\/a><\/div>

By BEN SZALINSKI<\/span>
\n<\/span>Capitol News Illinois<\/span>
\n<\/span>bszalinski@capitolnewsillinois.com<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

SPRINGFIELD \u2014 The General Assembly\u2019s independent forecasting commission has improved revenue projections for the upcoming fiscal year despite growing economic volatility.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s good news for state lawmakers who are in the final weeks of crafting the fiscal year 2026 budget set to take effect July 1. But the <\/span>Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability\u2019s upward revision<\/span><\/a> to its revenue forecast remains significantly more conservative than what Gov. JB Pritzker\u2019s office projected when he proposed a budget in February.<\/span><\/p>\n

COGFA\u2019s latest update now projects $54.5 billion in revenue in FY26 \u2013 $266 million more than the commission\u2019s March projection, but still $471 million below the governor\u2019s February projection for baseline revenues.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pritzker has also proposed changes to raise an additional $492 million in revenue in FY26, although that number is not factored into the baseline revenue comparison.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more: <\/b>Legislative revenue estimate more than $700 million lower than Pritzker\u2019s proposed budget<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

COGFA is also <\/span>projecting<\/span><\/a> state revenue will increase by $317 million in the current fiscal year 2025 compared to its March projection. That means the state would finish the fiscal year at the end of June with $53.9 billion of revenue \u2013 above the $53.3 billion lawmakers budgeted for and $31 million more than the governor\u2019s office\u2019s February forecast.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The projected revenue growth was driven by strong April income tax receipts. April revenue was up $593 million compared to April 2024 and was driven by 20% growth in income tax receipts, thanks to higher capital gains and interest earnings last year. Corporate income taxes also grew by 6.6% for the month, even though the revenue source remains down 8.2% for the fiscal year.<\/span><\/p>\n

But there are warning signs in several areas, according to COGFA. The commission lowered expectations for federal receipts for FY25 by 8.5% and 6.3% in FY26 because the state has been using a fund outside the typical General Revenue Fund for Medicaid-related expenses. That means reimbursements from the federal government to the state are not reflected in the state\u2019s General Revenue Fund total.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The commission also warned that the federal government could, at any time, decrease financial aid to states, creating more uncertainty.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThose capital gains revenue increases are not sustainable so as we look at fiscal year 26, we should not expect that as we go into fiscal year 27, I think it\u2019s going to be an even worse look,\u201d COGFA Co-Chair Rep. C.D. Davidsmeyer, R-Murrayville, said at a news conference last week.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

COGFA Revenue Manager Eric Noggle wrote broader economic uncertainty necessitates a \u201cmore cautious approach\u201d projecting next year\u2019s revenue numbers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe unknown implications of tariffs create many questions related to the duration of the tariffs, their impact on prices, and if these changes could lead to a recession,\u201d Noggle wrote. \u201cThese complicating factors and their potential impact on tax revenues make the revenue estimate for FY 2026 very challenging.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent national economic reports have indicated the U.S. added more <\/span>jobs<\/span><\/a> than expected in April, but the nation\u2019s gross domestic product declined by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first quarter of economic regression since 2022. Personal consumption grew by 1.8%, showing consumers overall aren\u2019t yet cutting back, but it was the slowest growth since spring 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s very concerning because Illinois tends to lag the nation in economic growth and economic stability,\u201d Davidsmeyer said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The decline in GDP was driven by an increase in imports, COGFA Chief Economist Ben Varner wrote, because businesses are likely \u201cfront-loading\u201d foreign purchases before tariffs imposed by the Trump administration kick in and make overseas goods more expensive. Imports are subtracted from domestic growth to calculate GDP.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

National projections are also blaring more warnings. Wells Fargo modeling projects stagflation from tariffs and an increase in inflation will cause an economic downturn, while Goldman Sachs\u2019 early April projection pegs the likelihood of a recession at 45%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe U.S. economy has entered a precarious phase, with early signs of contraction and rising inflation signaling the potential onset of stagflation,\u201d Varner wrote. \u201cWhile domestic demand and business investment remain relatively strong, they are being overshadowed by external shocks \u2014 particularly the surge in imports ahead of tariff implementation. The policy-driven volatility is already weighing on forecasts and investor confidence.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The governor\u2019s proposed $55.2 billion FY26 budget is based on a December S&P Global forecast that projected stable economic growth and considered some of Trump\u2019s proposed economic policies, including tariffs and tax cut extensions, Pritzker budget office director Alexis Sturm said <\/span>told a legislative committee<\/span><\/a> in February.<\/span><\/p>\n

Capitol News Illinois<\/span><\/i><\/a> is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service that distributes state government coverage to hundreds of news outlets statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation. <\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By BEN SZALINSKI Capitol News Illinois bszalinski@capitolnewsillinois.com SPRINGFIELD \u2014 The General Assembly\u2019s independent forecasting commission has improved revenue projections for the upcoming fiscal year despite growing economic volatility.\u00a0 That\u2019s good […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9032,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-local-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nState Revenue Projections Improve as Economic Uncertainty Grows - Effingham's News and Sports Leader, 979XFM and KJ Country 102.3<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Effingham's News and Sports Leader\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thexradio.com\/news\/local-news\/9030-state-revenue-projections-improve-as-economic-uncertainty-grows\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"State Revenue Projections Improve as Economic Uncertainty Grows - 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