Sunday's Seed Announcement Was Fun, But Thursday Was Real

By ESPN

In mid-February, college basketball is a liar.

The whole sport traffics in deception a month before Selection Sunday. The perennial announcement of the projected top-four seeds in each region, unveiled this past Sunday, only magnifies the myth that we can guess the pairings and hierarchy of the 68-team field.

We can’t even predict a random Thursday.

On this night, you needed four screens to track the action that changed perceptions of three top-10 programs -- all of which lost to unranked opponents -- that were confident in their dreams and aspirations when the committee called their names last weekend.

By late Thursday, however, everything had changed.

Wisconsin tussled with and defeated No. 6 Purdue 57-53 in Madison, potentially killing the Boilermakers’ hopes of securing a projected top seed and threatening to toss them into some dreaded first-round matchup against a fearless mid-major.

The Badgers retired Frank Kaminsky’s jersey at halftime. But they didn’t need the former Wooden Award winner or his flashy, red-carpet-worthy jacket to stop a Purdue team that once seemed capable of entering the NCAA tournament as the field’s most dangerous foe but will now attempt to recover from its first three-game losing streak since the 2014-15 season.

Purdue’s loss generated more hope for a team like No. 5 Cincinnati, stuck on the 2-seed line in Sunday’s projections with limited opportunities to alter its fortunes. The Bearcats had not lost since Dec. 9. Their outside chances of securing a top seed rested on their ability to continue their barnstorming tour through the American Athletic Conference.

Cincy started the night with a 16-game winning streak, the longest in Division I basketball. But Kelvin Sampson’s Houston squad boosted its profile with a 67-62 win over the Bearcats.

That hurts.

Mick Cronin’s program still must play No. 19 Wichita State twice this season, and perhaps a third time in the conference tournament. The Shockers, who bounced back from a 15-point deficit against Temple on Thursday, could capture the American crown as Cincy tries to stay atop the league and avoid a dizzying first-round matchup in the NCAA tournament.

Well, Purdue lost in one of the Big Ten’s wildest venues, the Kohl Center. And Cincinnati fell against a bubble team on the road.

But explain sophomore Tony Carr’s 30-point night and Penn State’s 79-56 win over No. 8 Ohio State, the top team in the Big Ten, on Thursday.

Stop. You can’t.

Just say, This is college basketball in mid-February. Never believe the lies.

Ohio State, Purdue and Cincinnati each entered Thursday with a sense of where they’re headed on Selection Sunday. They were top-four seeds in the committee’s projected bracket. Now, they’re unsure.

A road loss to a team in the RPI’s 80s won’t help Ohio State. Purdue may never regain its top-seed status. And Cincinnati’s final stretch now centers on salvaging what it has, instead of moving up.

All of this before the weekend’s impactful matchups: Villanova at Xavier. Wichita State at Cincy. West Virginia at Kansas. Ohio State at Michigan. Duke, maybe without Marvin Bagley III for the third consecutive game, at Clemson.

In most sports, everything is set a month before the postseason begins, and so it’s fair to look ahead. The Golden State Warriors will start the playoffs as the favorites to win the title, and the New England Patriots will have home-field advantage. That’s normal.

In college basketball, however, if you get caught salivating about March’s dessert, you’ll miss the main course in February.

Yes, Sunday’s announcement was a great show and fun boost for the game.

But Thursday was tangible and real.

And that’s how this regular season will end.

There will be more derailed dreams.

Ethan Happ and others like him in college basketball can ruin your favorite team’s seed. The afterthoughts without a postseason prayer will spoil your squad’s momentum. The underdogs may come for your optimistic outlooks and crumple them.

The announcement of the projected seeds a month before the official unveiling of the bracket energized the dreamers, teams that have played well in the first three-plus months of the season.

But, based on the week’s drama, it was a premature party.