Winter Weather Outlook Still Uncertain

BY DANIEL GRANT, FARM WEEK NOW

It appears those interested in the upcoming winter weather possibilities will have to wait until the season arrives to see how it actually plays out.

Current winter forecasts are all over the board for Illinois, ranging from neutral to increased chances of warmer-than-normal temperatures. And, for those who like snow, at least one prediction calls for more of the white stuff.

So, buckle up and get ready for a potential wild ride.

First up, the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts conditions this month could be colder and wetter than normal.

This follows a roller-coaster ride in October that featured statewide temperatures that averaged 9.7 degrees and 0.8-degree above normal the first two weeks, respectively, before plummeting to an average of 8.9 and 5.1 degrees below normal, respectively, the last two weeks of the month.

Moving into the climatological winter (December-February), NOAA remains fairly neutral on its forecast.

Northeast Illinois has a slightly increased chance of a drier-than-normal winter and the northern two-thirds of the state has a slightly increased chance of a warmer-than-normal winter.

Otherwise, chances are even in most of the state for above-, below- and near-average temperatures and precipitation this winter.

“One of the most important factors for this winter will be the presence and strength of a possible El Nino event,” said Jim Angel, state climatologist with the Illinois State Water Survey. “Currently, there is a 70 to 75 percent chance that El Nino will arrive some time this fall or winter.”

A strong El Nino generally heightens the chance of a mild winter in the Midwest.

“A weaker El Nino even could mean that other factors have a chance to play a bigger role in our winter weather,” Angel noted.

Unfortunately, factors such as the Arctic Oscillation and the related Polar Vortex are much harder to predict more than a few days in advance, according to the climatologist.

For those who follow the Old Farmers’ Almanac, it predicts a wet season. But due to its prediction of above-average temperatures, it also predicts below-normal snowfall in some areas that normally get snow.

But, for winter enthusiasts, the most aggressive outlook comes from the Farmers’ Almanac. Its revised forecast calls for higher levels of snowfall with biting cold temperatures this winter.