Odds of Early Fall Freeze Low

BY DANIEL GRANT, FARM WEEK NOW

Farmers preparing to harvest large corn and soybean crops this fall shouldn’t have to worry much about an early end to the growing season – at least not yet.

The National Weather Service fall outlook as of mid-August calls for an increased chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures for September through November.

If realized, a continuation of warm temperatures and rapid maturation of the crops could complete grain and pod fill before the first freeze. Growing-degree days from May 1 to Aug. 12 in Illinois totaled 2,406, which was 295 above average.

“This year we’ve racked up quite a few growing-degree days and are a little ahead of schedule,” said Jim Angel, state climatologist with the Illinois State Water Survey. “I think probably the frost risk is not that great at this point.”

The first frost typically arrives in early October in northern Illinois, mid-month in the center part of the state and by late October in southern Illinois.

A key factor of the forecast for moderate fall temperatures includes the possible return of El Nino, warmer-than-average water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

“That (warmer-than-normal forecast) is kind of the beginning of an El Nino pattern we may see,” said Angel, who reported a 60 percent chance El Nino could arrive by fall and 70 percent chance of it this winter. “Those are pretty good odds it will show up.

“When it shows up in the fall, we start to see milder temperatures,” he noted. “We might see kind of a prolonged fall this year.”

It also could lead to a mild winter.

“El Nino typically brings mild winters in the form of an increased chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures,” Angel said. “It’s usually just by a couple degrees or so, but usually there’s fewer bitter days and snowy days.”

The fall outlook for precipitation this month was neutral, with equal chances of above, below and near-normal precipitation.