Crop Production Records Abound

BY DAN GRANT, FARM WEEK NOW

If the television program “That’s Incredible” was still on the air, USDA should have released its final crop production numbers there.

The Ag Department’s crop production numbers for 2017 revealed multiple state and national records. Fortunately, most weren’t major surprises to the trade, which should help the market avoid a free fall in coming weeks.

Here are some of the production records farmers set last year:

- U.S. soybean production totaled 4.392 billion bushels, down 33 million bushels from last month’s estimate, but up 2 percent from 2016. Farmers harvested a record 89.5 million acres of beans, up 8 percent from the previous year.

- USDA raised the final national corn yield average to 176.6 bushels per acre, 2 bushels above the previous record.

- The Illinois corn yield surpassed the 200-bushel mark for the first time ever, to a state yield average of 201 bushels per acre, up 4 bushels from 2016.

- Total soybean production in Illinois eclipsed the 600-million-bushel mark for the first time at 611 million bushels, up from 592 million bushels in 2016.

- Illinois wheat growers harvested a state yield average of 76 bushels per acre, topping the previous record by 2 bushels.

“That’s just an incredible (corn) yield following a difficult growing season,” said Darin Newsom, DTN senior market analyst. “We have a huge amount of supply we’re going to have to work through.”

Jack Scoville, market analyst with The PRICE Futures Group, believes improved genetics and an extended growing season helped boost test weights and corn yields.

“A lot of producers thought it would be a good corn crop,” Scoville said during a teleconference hosted by the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. “But a lot were surprised just how good it was once they harvested it.”

The final soybean yield estimates totaled 49.1 bushels nationwide, 2.9 bushels below the 2016 record, and 58 bushels in Illinois, down 1 bushel from a year ago.

Related: Tips to help you raise your soybean yield ceiling. Read more here.

USDA subsequently raised ending stocks of all three crops to 2.47 billion bushels of corn (up 40 million bushels from last month), 470 million bushels of beans (up 25 million bushels) and 989 million bushels of wheat (up 29 million bushels).

But soybean prices actually increased after the report, which was friendly for that crop despite the record production.

“What caught the market by surprise is (USDA) reduced (soybean) production estimates due to reduced yield and unchanged harvest area,” Scoville said. “I think we’ll see the market stabilize from here and see more support than the last week or two.”

Meanwhile, the uptick in corn production (14.604 billion bushels, up 26 million bushels from last month) shouldn’t be enough to drive the market to new lows. The record yield was partially offset by a 400,000-acre decrease in harvested area.

“It (the record corn yield) is a bit of a bearish surprise, but I don’t think it changes enough to drive the market to new lows,” Scoville added. “South American weather becomes almost the exclusive focus now that this report is out of the way.”

USDA left its season-average price estimates unchanged for soybeans ($8.80-$9.80) and wheat ($4.50-$4.70) and raised the corn price estimate by a nickel at the midpoint to $3.25.