Crops May Dodge La Nina Impact

BY DAN GRANT, ILLINOIS FARM BUREAU

It appears the development of La Nina, if it occurs this year, will be too late to have a major impact on crop development in the U.S. as previously feared.

La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean tend to translate to warm and dry summer weather in the Midwest.

But with neutral ocean conditions, July turned out to be the third-wettest on record as Illinois received an average of 7-plus inches of rain last month, about 3 inches above the long-term average, according to Jim Angel, state climatologist with the Illinois State Water Survey.

“It was very wet around the state. There are very few areas even considered close to the dry side,” Angel said. “Almost everybody got at least 5 inches or more rain (in July).

Topsoil moisture across the state last week was rated 84 percent adequate, 10 percent surplus, and just 6 percent short or very short. Just a month ago, nearly one-third of topsoil moisture was rated short and sizable portions of the state were rated abnormally dry or in moderate drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Now the only abnormally dry portion of the state is a small portion of western Illinois along the Mississippi River.“It was a big change from June,” he continued. “We finally wiped out earlier (moisture) deficits and are now back closer to the long-term average.”

“We thought La Nina might show up (as early as mid-summer),” Angel said. “That would not have been welcome for Illinois crop production as (La Nina summers) tend to be on the hot and dry side, which we saw a dose of in 2011 before the 2012 drought.

“It (La Nina) currently is expected sometime this fall,” he continued. “There’s about a 50/50 shot it will show up at that point.”