Drier Warmer Weather Expected This Week

It seemed Mother Nature flipped the switch from early spring to summer like temperatures the last couple weeks.

The statewide temperature, which averaged 3.5 degrees below normal the first three weeks of May, climbed into the low- to mid-80s last week and could push the upper-80s this week.

The warm-up promoted crop emergence, which was 87 percent complete for corn and 45 percent complete for beans as of the first of last week, and helped soils dry out in areas bogged down by wet conditions.

"We needed warmer temperatures, obviously, but rain is the big issue,” said Bill Raben, a Gallatin County farmer and board member of the Illinois Soybean Association. “The whole month of May has been a challenge (in southeast Illinois).”

Planting entered the home stretch in Illinois recently as 94 percent of corn and 72 percent of beans were in the ground the first of last week.

But farmers in southeast Illinois last week still tried to catch up. Just 46 percent of corn and 13 percent of beans were planted in that region as of last week.

“The ground is still heavy,” Raben said. “We’ve got quite a bit of replanting to do for corn and beans.”

Some farmers in recent weeks considered switching to soybeans. But Raben doesn’t foresee a major shift. USDA estimates Illinois farmers this season could plant 12.1 million acres of corn and 10 million acres of beans.

Nationwide, USDA in March projected acreage could total 93.6 million for corn and 82.2 million for beans. An updated acreage report comes out June 30.

“I do think soybean acres will exceed the March intentions,” said Darrel Good, University of Illinois ag economist. “But would that suggest fewer corn acres? If there’s not a lot of prevent plant, we might see total acreage a little larger than we saw in the March report.”

Farmers and traders also continue to keep a close eye on the weather as the end of El Nino could be the start of La Nina, cooler-than-normal water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. There’s a 75 percent chance of La Nina by fall.

The National Weather Service summer outlook currently calls for an increased chance of above-normal temperatures with equal chances of above- and below-normal rainfall in Illinois.

“It’s a rare combination in Illinois to have a warmer-than-normal summer without being drier than normal,” said Jim Angel, state climatologist with the Illinois State Water Survey.

The previous 40 warmest summers on record featured below-normal rainfall 21 times, 13 were near normal and just six produced above-normal rainfall, Angel noted.

The fall outlook also calls for an increased chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures statewide with an increased chance of drier-than-normal conditions in southern Illinois.