Crop Production Forecast Lower for Soybeans

USDA last week lowered its soybean production forecast, as many farmers hoped, since it projected bin-buster yields back in August. However, the yield and acreage adjustments don’t affect the 2015 crop estimates (those could arrive later this week). Instead, USDA last week lowered its estimate of the 2014 soybean crop by 41.7 million bushels to a total of 3.93 billion bushels.

The revision to production came as USDA revised 2014 harvested acres of soybeans down 470,000 to a total of 82.6 million acres. Soybean futures prices trended up after the somewhat surprising revisions to last year’s crop, but the outlook this year should keep markets under pressure. USDA, last week in its grain stocks report, estimated old crop stocks in all positions as of Sept. 1 totaled 1.73 billion bushels of corn (up 41 percent from a year ago) and 191 million bushels of beans (up 108 percent from last year).

“The soybean stocks are a little lower than anticipated, but still 100 million bushels more than last year,” Randy Martinson, market analyst with Progressive Ag, said during a teleconference hosted by the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. “In all, I look at the report as friendly for wheat, a little negative for corn, and possibly a little negative for beans.”

USDA this Friday (Oct. 9) releases its much-anticipated crop production forecast, which should include updated acreage information along with its world supply and demand estimates. Wheat prices trended higher the middle of last week as USDA reduced its spring wheat forecast by 26 million bushels. In Illinois, USDA pegged production of this year’s winter wheat crop at 33.8 million bushels, down 25 percent from the previous year.